Dentsville, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

721
FXUS62 KCAE 151710
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
110 PM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level ridge centered over the region through Friday
will shift west this weekend and into next week. Scattered
storms likely Friday afternoon, especially in the CSRA followed
by lower rain chances and near normal temperatures over the
weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible today, focused
  primarily across the CSRA and southern Midlands.

Quiet and hot weather is ongoing across the region, with temps
already in the upper 80s and dewpoints in the upper 70s to near 80.
Heat index values are in the 100F-105F range across the southern
half of the area, likely to approach Heat Advisory criteria by mid-
afternoon. Not convinced on issuing one just yet but will consider
it over the next hour or so. The synoptic pattern is in a similar
spot that it was yesterday, with a broad, flat 500 hPa ridge
stretched across Florida and into the GOM. Flow is weak and
northerly in the lower troposphere as a surface low develops off the
coast of North Carolina. PWs are still quite high - 1.9" to 2.1"
across the area - and scattered showers and storms are forecast to
develop this afternoon. The question is primarily where these will
focus. Initial activity is likely to focus on an area of convergence
currently noted across the southern Midlands. There is an
instability gradient that favors development here, possibly by 1p or
2p. The other focus will be (potentially) ahead of an MCV that is
currently in northern Alabama. HREF guidance does push this towards
our forecast area later this afternoon, providing an impetus for
convective development in the 6p to 10p timeframe across the CSRA
and western Midlands. But ultimately, confidence isn`t super
high in overall coverage, leading to PoPs around 30% areawide.
Highs should be in the low 90s. Tonight, look for convection to
gradually wane after midnight with lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- A backdoor cold front will drop southward on Saturday,
  increasing rain chances, especially across the southern one-
  third of the forecast area.

The aforementioned surface low developing off the coast of NC today
is forecast to push a weak, backdoor cold front into the forecast
area late tonight and early Saturday. The location of this is
basically TBD but it is most likely to setup somewhere across the
southern portion of the forecast area, with PoPs being highest in
the CSRA and southern Midlands. Though, the airmass does not look
substantially different across the area so at least isolated
afternoon shower/storms are possible elsewhere as well. Highs will
likely be in the low 90s and overnight lows in the low to mid
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Relatively dry behind a weak front for Sunday and Monday.
- Mainly diurnal storm chances return by Thursday, with seasonal
  temps forecast for most of the week.

A quiet, seasonal period is expected. North and northeasterly flow
is likely to push into the area on Sunday as the surface low departs
and is replaced by a relatively weak surface high. Seasonally dry
air is expected to filter in, with PWs near 1.5"-1.75" pushing into
the area on Sunday and Monday. As a result, precipitation chances
look pretty limited across the area despite upper level ridging
shifting to our west over the Mid-MS Valley. As we head into the
bulk of the week, Hurricane Erin is forecast to makes its
closest approach to the east coast of the US by Wednesday, with
some subsidence possible on the western side of the system
helping to keep PoPs seasonally low both days. However, there is
some uncertainty with this, especially pertaining to how close
Erin actually passes to the US East Coast. A trough is forecast
to push into the eastern CONUS by this point, helping push Erin
out to sea. This feature is also forecast to yield higher rain
chances by the end of next week. But the uncertainty lies in how
closer Erin gets to the East Coast as that will modulate how
much of the subsidence on the western side actually overspreads
the Carolinas. So Wednesday is probably the question mark day,
with confidence on either side in the forecast. Confidence in
storm chances increasing at the end of next week is higher than
normal due to the aforementioned troughing in the eastern US.
LREF individual ensemble means show fairly high probs for rain
in this period, adding confidence to the general pattern
recognition.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected for most of the period.

Upper level ridge from the past few days remains stretched
across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico, slowly shifting
westward. We are mostly sunny at all TAF sites sans OGB, who
happens to be near an area of surface convergence and
shower/storm development this afternoon. Generally, expect a
focus for showers and storms here for the next few hours, with a
PROB30 taking care of the chances for now. Later this
afternoon/evening, a shortwave is forecast to approach from the
west and potentially cause showers/storms in the CSRA. This
could be another forcing mechanism, with the Augusta terminals
most likely to see storms. Have a PROB30 group for thunderstorms
at both sites to cover this threat as well. Aside from this, VFR
conditions are expected through the period with some ground fog
again possible tomorrow. Isolated to scattered convection is
possible tomorrow afternoon, generally after the end of this TAF
period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Typical summertime conditions
return with afternoon convection and possible periods of stratus
in the morning each day.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...